You have no idea under how much stress your local meteorologist has. It is usual for you to experience a wrong forecast; for example, it rained when the forecast said it would not. And you must have thought that if they are so bad at their job, why do they still get paid?
The fact is that meteorologists are given much less credit than they deserve. Their predictions are solid more often than they are wrong. If you know the details of weather forecasting, you would be surprised how an intricate detail can cause a difference in just 24 hours. So here are a few things to consider when it comes to judging our weather predictions:
Not In My Backyard Viewpoint
The accuracy of a weather prediction can boil down to its perception. This applies when the forecast says that it would rain and there was none at your house, but a friend’s house a few miles away experienced rain. Now for you, the forecast was wrong, but was it wrong really? It is all about who got the rain and who did not.
A Chance Of Rain
When you see a 30% chance of rain on the TV, whether it rains or it does not, after that, the meteorologist is claimed to have been wrong. But it is what it is. A 30% chance means a 30% chance that anything can happen. It is hard to explain just for a single day in a short time on the television how they came to that conclusion, let alone for the whole week.
Variables Of Weather
The variables that determine the weather can change in an instant. Now in a window of 24-hours, this can mean that a snow prediction of a couple of inches can turn into a snowstorm that has you half stuck in the snow. The atmosphere above our heads is a river of moisture, constantly flowing and changing, and even with our accurate technology today, predicting the future exactly is impossible.
Long-Term And Short-Term Predictions
Predictions that are 24 hours along the line are accurate up to 95%, take it up to three days, this accuracy falls to 86%, and it drops to 75% for a five-day forecast! This is because the computer programs used to predict need variables of the weather need to be assumed if the forecast goes too much in the future. If they are not the same anymore, the outcome would be drastically different. That is why the most recent prediction is the most accurate.
While it is a fact that there are no absolutely accurate forecasts, meteorologists are much more accurate than people care to admit. So the next time you feel your local meteorologist is wrong, please consider it might just be wrong in your backyard. Did this article make sense to you? Tell us in the comments below!